At a glance
English Channel
More than 200,000 people have arrived by small boat since 2018. Fewer are coming in 2026, but each boat carries more people: the average is a record of around 67 per boat (to early August; 62 in 2025), and in the week to 30 October it was about 78 (934 people in 12 boats).
Home Office annual figures. 2026: provisional, to 30 October. The 2022 peak was 45,774.
The system
| Measure | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Grant rate (initial decisions) | 38% | 48% a year earlier; 77% at the 2022 peak. |
| Awaiting an initial decision | 40,168 | Lowest since 2019. The appeals backlog is still rising. |
| Returns, Jul 2024 – Jul 2026 | 80,286 | Including 19,622 enforced returns and 6,103 small boat arrivals. |
| Returns to France | 3,310 | Under the UK–France agreement in force since August 2025, to June 2026. |
| Foreign national offenders removed | 11,733 | July 2024 to July 2026. |
Free support
Asylum support goes to people who would otherwise be destitute while their claim is decided. Most claimants cannot work for their first 12 months.
| Support | Amount |
|---|---|
| Weekly cash allowance, self-catered housing (ASPEN card) | £49.18 / wk |
| Weekly allowance where meals are provided (hotels) | £9.95 / wk |
| Furnished accommodation with utilities | free |
| NHS healthcare, school places for children | free |
| Cost per person per night: hotel | £144 |
| Cost per person per night: dispersal housing | £23.25 |
| Average total cost of one asylum claim | £18,700 |
| People on state-funded support | ≈ 93,300 |
Official statistics
UK statistics record nationality, not asylum status. There is no reliable public data on how many small boat arrivals go to prison.
| Foreign national offenders | Number |
|---|---|
| Foreign nationals as a share of the prison population | ≈ 12% |
| Living in the community, liable for deportation (end of 2025) | 19,470 |
| In prison for an offence involving causing death (June 2025) | 989 |
| In custody and potentially eligible for early removal (June 2026) | ≈ 4,800 |
Verdicts only
Only cases where a court has reached a verdict and a reputable national or local outlet has reported them. Suspects and ongoing trials are not listed.
Kuwait-born Abdullah Albadri, 34, tried to climb the embassy fence in Kensington with two knives in April 2025 and was stopped by armed police. The Old Bailey set a minimum term of 20 years. He had arrived twice by small boat, in 2021 and 2025, and his asylum claim was refused.
Mehmet Bulut, 31, followed a woman near a subway and attacked her. He arrived by small boat in 2022; his asylum claim was withdrawn for non-compliance and he absconded. He pleaded guilty, and Worcester Crown Court classed him as a dangerous offender. He faces deportation.
Taha Derwish, 26, approached a group of teenage girls in September 2025 and touched one of them despite being told they were 15. He was arrested within ten minutes. He was appealing a refused asylum claim and staying at a hotel in Crewe. It is unclear whether he will be deported straight away.
Chan Mathok Atak, 19, from South Sudan, steered a 14-metre dinghy carrying 165 people, including 31 children, for at least 90 minutes in July 2026. It is one of the first sentences under the January 2026 offence of endangering others at sea. He pleaded guilty; the judge said he could face automatic deportation.
Afghan national Ahmad Mulakhil, 23, was convicted at Warwick Crown Court. The case sparked protests in Nuneaton in summer 2025. A second Afghan man charged alongside him was acquitted.
Eritrean national Amer Mohammed, 24, who was staying at an asylum hotel in Cliftonville, attacked a lone woman on the promenade in August 2024. A jury convicted him after a ten-day trial at Canterbury Crown Court.
Haybe Cabdiraxmaan Nur stabbed 37-year-old Gurvinder Johal through the heart without provocation in a Lloyds branch in May 2025. He arrived by small boat in October 2024 and his asylum claim was refused in January 2025. He must serve at least 25 years.
Policy and decisions
County and city papers
Local papers show where national policy lands: hotel closures, camps planned on former military sites, and resistance from residents and councils.
| Place | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Gosport, Hampshire | 149 people landed at Haslar marina. About 350 protesters gathered and police issued orders covering the whole town. A man was later charged. | Portsmouth News, ITV Meridian |
| Dover, Kent | A record 230 people arrived on one “mega-dinghy”. The previous record, in July, was 165. | KentOnline |
| Barnham, Suffolk/Norfolk border | The former RAF base has 320 bed spaces; an earlier plan mentioned 1,250 single men. Residents met on 24 October to decide next steps; West Suffolk Council opposes the plan. | Hits Radio Norfolk |
| Linton-on-Ouse, North Yorkshire | A plan for up to 1,200 people; campaigners put the cost at £270m. | London Loves Business, GB News |
| Piddington / Bicester, Oxfordshire | About 1,250 single men would move to a former MoD storage site. Villagers held a picnic protest and are considering a symbolic “independence” vote. | Oxford Daily, Infrastructure Now |
| Leverington / Wisbech, Cambridgeshire | A former sheltered housing site would take 26 mothers and babies; the local MP says 205 people are planned for the district. Fenland District Council opposes it and residents protested. | BBC (repost) |
| Llandudno, North Wales | The Home Office plans to house asylum seekers in two properties. Conwy County Council and local Reform UK councillors object. | Nation.Cymru, Bayside Radio |
| Falkirk, Scotland | The Cladhan Hotel is closing for good. It was the scene of repeated protests in 2025, and a brick was once thrown through a window. | STV News |
| Brighton & Hove | The council leader wrote to the minister asking for a review of an asylum hotel closure and of local asylum arrangements. | Brighton & Hove City Council |
| Epping, Essex | The Bell Hotel, starting point of the 2025 protest wave, closed. The council criticised the Home Office for late notice. | Epping Forest District Council |
| West Northamptonshire | The council leader demanded firm closure dates for three asylum hotels in the area. | West Northants Council |
Check it yourself
Analysis 1 · Country of origin
The reasons people leave Eritrea have not changed in decades. What changed in 2024–25 were the routes and the options, and the UK became an especially attractive end point.
Eritrea's compulsory national service has no real end date, and many people stay in it for decades. Human Rights Watch calls it forced labour; a UN investigator has reported torture and sexual violence during service, and draft evaders and their families are punished. The UN estimates more than 10,000 people are arbitrarily detained, and there is no independent press. The Mixed Migration Centre reported in 2025 that departures had not fallen significantly and that "the root causes remain unchanged."
Many Eritreans used to stay in Sudan and Ethiopia. The war in Sudan and conflict in Ethiopia made those refuges and routes dangerous. Eastern Libya banned Eritrean nationals, and smuggling networks became more predatory. Canada paused new private sponsorship registrations for 2024–25, which had kept many from moving on. Eritrean arrivals on the Central Mediterranean fell by almost 90% by 2024, then rose sharply again in early 2025.
The UK grant rate is far above average, and returns are practically impossible: Eritrea stopped issuing the emergency travel documents needed for removals in March 2026. On 15 October the Home Secretary threatened Asmara with a visa ban; Eritrea said it would not negotiate under pressure. More than 35,000 Eritreans have claimed asylum in the UK since 2014, and an established community draws later arrivals. That last point is a general finding of migration research; we found no UK-specific survey on it.
Analysis 2 · The UK economy
Asylum costs are small against total public spending but large within the Home Office budget, and they were badly planned for years. The biggest item is not money given to claimants but accommodation.
Claimants' weekly cash (£49.18, or £9.95 in hotels) is 35% lower in real terms than in 2000. Accommodation drives the cost: a hotel night is about £144 per person, a dispersal flat about £23. In 2024–25 hotels took 76% of accommodation contract costs while housing about a third of claimants. That is why faster decisions and hotel closures cut spending, which has fallen by about £1bn since 2023–24.
The IFS found that between 2021–22 and 2023–24 the Home Office planned to spend £0.3bn and actually spent £7.9bn, covering the gap from the Treasury reserve. Part of the cost falls on the aid budget: in 2023, £4.3bn, or 28% of UK aid, went on supporting refugees in the UK, money taken directly from programmes abroad.
Claimants usually cannot work for 12 months, and after that only in shortage occupations. Of recognised refugees, only about 20% were working a year after their decision and roughly half after five years. Women's employment is much lower, and most jobs are low-paid. A 2026 Center for Global Development estimate puts the value of allowing work after six months at about £294m per annual cohort in savings and tax, roughly 3.5 times what the planned £10,000 repayment charge would recover.
Analysis 3 · National politics
Almost every migration measure fell in 2026, but the issue's political weight did not. In Westminster, migration is where governments lose the most voters.
Reform UK led the polls for more than a year. YouGov finds 86% of its supporters rank immigration among the top issues, against 42% of the public. In May's local elections Labour lost 1,496 councillors; Keir Starmer resigned in June and Andy Burnham became prime minister in July. Burnham kept Shabana Mahmood as Home Secretary, and the government tightened rather than softened its line: the statutory duty to support was removed, protection was cut to 30 months, a bill with repayment and a narrower definition of family life is before Parliament, and Eritrea was threatened with a visa ban.
The government points to results: 43% fewer small boat arrivals, half as many people in hotels, the smallest backlog since 2019 and more returns. The Conservatives and Reform say it is not enough ("they will never stop the boats"), while rights groups say the measures come at refugees' expense. Gallup's data show the UK's foreign-born share is no higher than Norway's or the Netherlands', yet concern is much stronger. Public mood is shaped by visible signals as well as numbers: hotels, videos of landings and high-profile crimes.
In May, Reform was most trusted on immigration (38%), ahead of Labour (22%) and the Conservatives (16%). Labour edged ahead in October's YouGov polls, and in the latest one (25–26 October) Reform fell to 20%, its lowest since the tracker restarted in January 2025. That suggests Reform's support is not fully solid: only 29% of its current voters would not consider another party.
Analysis 4 · Local politics
The Home Office decides where asylum seekers live; councils deal with the consequences. As hotels close, the conflict moves from towns to villages.
Accommodation runs on national contracts, and the Home Office chooses hotels and providers. Reform UK won ten councils in 2025 and promised to use "every instrument of power" to stop hotels, but the tools are narrow, mostly planning and change-of-use rules. In Epping, the High Court temporarily barred use of the Bell Hotel in August 2025, but the Court of Appeal overturned the ruling. The hotel finally closed in July 2026 on the Home Office's own decision.
The government is replacing hotels with large, basic sites, typically next to small villages: Barnham, Piddington, Linton-on-Ouse (700 residents, up to 1,200 asylum seekers). At Barnham the Home Office has filed an Urgent Crown Development application, so the plan does not depend on a local planning decision. Opposition crosses party lines: West Suffolk, Fenland, Conwy and West Northamptonshire councils all object. Several villages are considering symbolic "independence" referendums with no legal effect.
Local police carry a heavy load. Gosport needed a town-wide dispersal order and saw 12 arrests. Councils often hear about decisions last: Epping and West Northamptonshire both complained publicly. Brighton & Hove's leadership, by contrast, asked for a review because a hotel was closing, a reminder that local views differ.
Analysis 5 · Sense of safety
The sense of safety is shaped by real cases and by misperceptions together. Serious cases do happen, but the public estimates foreign nationals' share of crime at about twice the statistical reality.
A 2026 King's College London study found Britons believe most crimes are rising, though since 2010 burglary and vehicle theft have roughly halved and phone theft has fallen by about 70%; shoplifting is the exception. People guess foreign nationals make up 25% of prisoners (actual: 12%) and 30% of those convicted of sexual offences (actual: 15%); Reform voters guess 50%. Those who overestimate are much more likely to back harsher sentences for immigrants.
The fear is not baseless. Foreign nationals are over-represented among those convicted of sexual offences, and serious cases such as the Nuneaton abduction, the Crewe assault or the Hereford attack rightly cause alarm. In many cases the offender was a refused claimant or a convicted person awaiting deportation, and 19,470 such offenders live in the community. These cases often expose failures of the system: removals that never happen, claimants who abscond, prisoners released in error.
There is no reliable national data on whether crime changes around asylum accommodation. Police forces record incidents without a specific marker. Dorset Police, for example, logged 286 incidents at asylum accommodation addresses in 2025, a figure that includes protests and cases not involving residents. Rumour fills the gap, as with the Gosport "signal jammers". Asylum seekers' own safety is part of the picture too: Ipsos found 40% of Britons think police should give equal priority to the right to protest and the safety of hotel residents.